China's Grand Strategy in Asia and Beyond According to Shi Yuanhua
"It would be America's greatest misfortune if it were to turn China ... from an imaginary enemy into its own gravedigger."
It is always interesting to hear a Chinese scholar provide his appreciation of China’s grand strategy, even if it means hearing things that we mostly already know.
In a presentation on 2 November 2023, veteran international relations expert Shi Yuanhua (石源华) describes what he sees as being some of the core elements of “China's strategy towards its periphery” (中国周边战略): stabilising relations with the US; deepening regional economic integration; expanding China’s maritime presence to the Sea of Japan up to the Arctic Ocean; shoring up its northern and western periphery; and creating a “community of common destiny” in direct opposition to the “hegemonic” and “values-driven” model currently offered by the US. Simply put, this is a strategy to foster a new China-led regional order.
The term “periphery” (周边) could also be translated here as China’s “extended neighbourhood” or something along those lines. Although some Chinese scholars may employ it to refer to countries that share a land or maritime border with China, Shi uses it here in its broadest sense and includes an area ranging from the Middle East and Djibouti to the Arctic Ocean and Australia.
Unfortunately, the transcript of Shi’s presentation appears to have been edited for brevity, leaving some points in need of further elaboration.
Summary
The Russo-Ukrainian war has had both a negative and a positive impact on China’s immediate and extended neighbourhood. On the one hand it has exacerbated tensions throughout Asia. On the other, it has provided (and is continuing to provide) Beijing with more room to manoeuvre at a time when Washington’s attention has been focused mainly on Europe.
As it continues to develop, time is on China's side. But Beijing must do its utmost to avoid conflicts with the US from erupting. This is the key to stabilising China’s periphery.
Beijing is gradually shifting from a “two-ocean” to a “three-ocean” strategy that is set to include the Arctic Ocean and, potentially, the Sea of Japan as well.
With tensions in the East and South of its periphery, China must ensure that its more stable northern and western periphery act as “security barriers” [安全屏障].
Beijing’s economic strategy aims to build a “7+3 regional cooperation circle”, consisting of seven major economic corridors, China’s network of FTAs, the China-Arab States Cooperation Forum and the Polar Silk Road.
Creating “more and more communities of common destiny” in direct opposition to the “hegemonic” and “values-driven” model currently proposed by the US is the main goal of China's governance strategy.
In its “strategic contest” [战略较量] with the US, Beijing should strive to win over as many “middle countries” [中间国家] as possible so as to ensure, at the very least, their neutrality. Beijing’s “accommodating attitude” should also be extended to countries with which Beijing has ongoing territorial and maritime disputes.