Econ & Tech Experts on Trump’s Election

Commentaries by Zhang Ming, Xu Qiyuan, Lian Ping, Liu Dian and Gu Wenjun

Earlier this month, Beijing announced a Rmb10tn ($1.4tn) fiscal package. The headline debt-swap programme will reduce financial pressures for local governments, turning “hidden debts” into formal government debts. This was not just a stimulus package, according to one expert close to the People’s Bank of China (PBOC), but rather “a major shift in policy logic”. Policymakers have now adapted a “balanced approach”, where the focus will be on consumption as well as the usual investment, the expert said.

Despite the significance of the shift, markets were underwhelmed. Since September, many have been waiting for a huge stimulus, including perhaps real estate buybacks and direct cash transfers to consumers. That is yet to materialise. Policymakers are likely pondering the economic measures they should take as Trump returns to the White House. In today’s post, we summarise the recommendations of four Chinese economists and a well-known semiconductor expert.

Were Trump to implement his promise…