Mutiny in Russia: Chinese Experts React
Mutiny in Russia: Chinese Experts React
“This ‘rebellion’ is the most significant ‘grey rhino event’ since the outbreak of the Ukrainian crisis and could have far-reaching repercussions on the course of the war and the situation in Russia.”
Hello from Beijing,
This was supposed to be a week off for Sinification, but some of you reached out asking if there had been any notable reactions by Chinese scholars to Yevgeny Prigozhin’s and his Wagner group’s recent rebellion in Russia – the most widely noted in the West having perhaps been the two short commentaries by Xu Wenhong and Yu Sui in the China Daily. Today’s edition is therefore a little more concise than usual.
The pieces below were published between the 24th and 26th of June, when the bulk of these commentaries came out. Most focused on the uprising itself, its drivers and its potential impact on both Russian domestic politics and the war in Ukraine. Its implications for China and Beijing’s ties with Moscow were rarely mentioned.
To those of you who may be reading this newsletter from China, do get in touch. I will be staying in Beijing for a couple of weeks, followed by Shanghai and Kunming.
What a treat it is to be back here.
Author: Feng Yujun (冯玉军) – Director of the Centre for Russian and Central Asian Studies and deputy director of the Institute of International Studies, Fudan University
Published: 24 June 2023
Source: Phoenix
The mutiny was not an isolated event but the result of an accumulation of both internal and external “contradictions” [俄罗斯内外诸多矛盾] exacerbated by the increasingly unfavourable prospects of Russia’s war against Ukraine, and should be understood against the backdrop of both domestic instability [俄罗斯国内就暗流涌动] and anti-war sentiment in Russia.
The war in Ukraine has created deep divisions among Russia’s ruling elite [在俄乌战争一年多之后，普京的“执政圈子”内部也在经历着非常重要的分化] and anti-Putin sentiment has been rising within key Russian business circles. Putin’s base of loyal supporters in the upper echelons of Russian society has been shrinking.
“With this Wagner mutiny, political tensions within Russia will be further exacerbated. This [event] will have far-reaching repercussions on Russia's future. This deserves our utmost attention. Even if the Wagner mutiny is put to rest … the uncertainty surrounding Russia's future will remain very high.”
The political views held by Russia’s top brass and leading politicians are highly “complex” and “volatile” [非常复杂而且变动不居的]. To what extent their ultra-nationalist and anti-Western rhetoric is genuine is impossible to tell. The views they express are often based on political calculations or even financial greed. The volatility of Russian politics is here to stay.
“Changes in China's international and peripheral environment depend more on China itself than on the outside. What China thinks and does has a strong regional and international impact … This is very similar to humanity's response to climate change. Climate change is a long-term process. If we want the natural environment in which we live to change from deteriorating to improving, we can only do so by changing our own ways of producing things and lifestyles, by saving energy and reducing emissions, by using less fossil energy and more clean energy, and by gradually reaching [our] carbon peak and [becoming] carbon neutral.”
Author: Zhao Long (赵隆) – Deputy director of the Institute for Global Governance Studies, Shanghai Institutes for International Studies
Published: 24 June 2023
Source: The Paper
Although there are those within Russia who are unhappy with their army’s performance in Ukraine, the country’s elite have remained united around Putin.
Nevertheless, this mutiny may be a symptom of the growing “discontent” and “fatigue” among Russian troops and society in general.
Moscow’s use of private military companies is a “double-edged sword”. If Putin allows such groups to grow further, this could lead to more factional infighting, political instability and, ultimately, civil unrest.
“This ‘rebellion’ will obviously have a direct impact on the morale of Russian troops” and will affect their performance on the front line. Ukraine, for its part, will make sure to seize this opportunity and intensify its counteroffensive.
These events may further embolden NATO countries in their support of Ukraine as may be evidenced during the next NATO summit in Vilnius on 11-12 July 2023.
“Overall, this ‘rebellion’ is the most significant ‘grey rhino event’ to have taken place since the outbreak of the Ukrainian crisis and could have far-reaching repercussions on the course of the war and the situation in Russia.”
Author: Li Hao (李昊) – Professor, School of International Studies, Sichuan University
Published: 25 June 2023
Source: The Paper
No one wanted to see Russia fall into Prigozhin’s hands. “A Russia in turmoil would be a disaster for the whole world.”
However short-lived it was, the mutiny has dealt “a major blow to Russia”.
“Russia has failed to establish a stable chain of command in Ukraine”, with different factions competing against one another. Thus, when the war is not going favourably for Russia, infighting [内斗] between these different groups “is bound to erupt”.
“Allowing such private armed forces to grow is like feeding a tiger. It is bound to backfire [就像是养虎为患，必遭反噬].”
The mutiny “will have a major impact on the Russo-Ukrainian conflict.” (Note: Despite the deal struck in Belarus, Li was still imagining the possibility of continued fighting between Wagner and the Russian army).
Author: Wang Siyu (王思羽) – Postdoctoral researcher at the Shanghai Academy of Global Governance and Area Studies, Shanghai International Studies University
Published: 25 June 2023
Source: Beijing Cultural Review
The fact that Wagner’s march on Moscow was met with little resistance is a sign that a certain number of Russian citizens and soldiers either support Prigozhin or at least agree with his criticism of Russia’s Ministry of Defence. Others are simply not prepared to put their lives at risk in order to defend the Kremlin.
This rebellion has seriously weakened the authority of Russia’s Ministry of Defence and undermined the reputation of the country’s armed forces.
“The Wagner mutiny crisis has had a negative impact on Russia's position in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict. Regardless of the outcome of this crisis [i.e. the mutiny], it will undoubtedly affect the mindset and willpower of the Russian troops on the front line.”
These events are set to “produce more unpredictable results” in the near future.
This mutiny and the fact that it has gone unpunished has now set a precedent. Will others in Russia decide to express their dissatisfaction in a similar way?
Author: Shen Yi (沈逸) – Professor at Fudan University's School of International Relations and Public Affairs
Published: 26 June 2023
Source: Guancha.cn
Voices his surprise at how easily Prigozhin’s Wagner Group was able to march towards Moscow almost unimpeded and appears to agree with the characterisation of certain officials from Russia’s Ministry of Defence as “stupid” and “corrupt”.
Cautions against exaggerating the positive impact that this mutiny may have for Ukraine in its war against Russia.
Highlights the current “complexity” [复杂性], “subtleties” [微妙性] and “uncertainty” [不确定性] of Russia’s domestic affairs.
To understand why greater political instability in Russia, a severely weakened Kremlin or a toppling of Putin by a an even more radical force such as Wagner’s would be a disaster for China, see here:
For more from one of China’s most outspoken critics of Russia:
Since The Paper did not make this clear, I am assuming that this is indeed Sichuan University’s Li Hao.