Shi Yinhong on the Dangers of US-China Rivalry

"If we compare this rivalry to the Anglo-German rivalry at the time of the 1907 Anglo-Russian Convention and the formation of the two opposing camps...the situation today is graver, even much graver!"

There are basically two types of scholars in China: those who emphasise the growing risk of war between their country and the US and those who prefer to stress how unlikely this remains. Shi Yinhong (时殷弘) belongs to those who, like Zheng Yongnian last week, subscribe to the dictum that no one likes war, but war eventually happens—especially when not enough is done to prevent it.

Like Zheng, Shi expresses his alarm at the growing intensity of the US-China rivalry (and the potential of a second Trump presidency). He also shares Zheng’s concern about the gradual emergence of two opposing blocs: one dominated by the US and the other by China.

Shi, at 73, is of the same generation as Xi Jinping, who is 71. Both men experienced the turmoil of the Cultural Revolution, the Sino-Soviet split during the Cold War and both were already young adults when the US-China rapprochement began in the early 1970s. I like to think that Shi is in a better position to understand Xi’s approach to foreign polic…