The World in 2024 as Viewed by Yan Xuetong (Part 2)
The World in 2024 as Viewed by Yan Xuetong (Part 2)
"History is a tool used to legitimise policies of confrontation and war ... One must be on guard against those who use history to stir up antagonistic sentiments."
Today’s edition of Sinification looks at part two of Yan Xuetong’s outlook on the world in 2024 (see link to part one above). Yan, as many of you will know, is a central figure in China’s community of international relations scholars. He is less involved in policy-related work for his government than he used to be, but he remains a particularly influential and well-connected figure in China. As will be evidenced below, this provides him with more leeway than most to express his opinion on sensitive issues. In this interview conducted by The Paper (澎湃新闻), Yan reiterates his consternation over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the damage it has caused to his country; criticises those in China and elsewhere who analyse such conflicts through the lens of history rather than focusing on the motivations of those who launched it; warns against governments using history as a means of whipping up “antagonistic sentiments”; cautions his country not to interfere in the upcoming US election; calls on his government to make it easier for foreign journalists to come and report on China; and recommends that Beijing focus more on substantive diplomatic goals in and around its neighbourhood than on communicating abstract concepts to the world.
Summary
The wars between Russia and Ukraine and between Israel and Hamas have been driven primarily by domestic political considerations of the parties involved. Had these wars been averted, those in power may well have been replaced.
History is often used as a tool to legitimise confrontational policies and war. “One must be on guard against those who use history to stir up antagonistic sentiments.”
The geopolitical and economic damage that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has inflicted on China is substantial and “will last for years”: East Asian and developed countries have tilted further towards the US; military and economic risks have increased for China; and Beijing’s controversial stance on the Russo-Ukrainian war has provided India with a perfect opportunity to cast itself as the true leader of the Global South.
In 2024, the world will be marked by uncertainty, instability, unforeseen military conflicts, sluggish economic growth, the continued rise of populism and the deepening of political polarisation.
America’s presidential election is bound to have a negative impact on US-China relations. Anti-China rhetoric is set to increase and Beijing will no longer be able to to rely on Biden to defuse tensions.
“If Biden is re-elected, US-China antagonism will continue to rise. If Trump is elected, the relationship will be in a state of even greater uncertainty as his policy towards China is more volatile than Biden’s.”
Beijing should avoid acting in a way that might lead Americans to believe that it is interfering in November’s presidential election.
The Chinese Communist Party’s efforts to communicate its “strategic concepts” abroad have so far not been effective.
To address this, Beijing should make it easier, not more difficult, for journalists to come and report on China, so that they can explain these concepts using their own words.
But actions carry much greater weight than words. That is why Beijing should focus first and foremost on stabilising its neighbourhood (East Asia, South Asia and Central Asia). To do so would be the best way of contributing to world peace.
The Author
Name: Yan Xuetong (阎学通)
Date of birth: 7 December 1952 (age: 71)
Position: Director of the Institute of International Relations, Tsinghua University.
Previously: Researcher at the MSS-affiliated China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR) from 1982-1984 and 1992-2000.
Research focus: International relations
Education: BA Heilongjiang University (1982); MA University of International Relations (1986); PhD University of California, Berkeley (1992)
For a more detailed overview of Yan’s career, interests, awards and publications, see here.
IN 2024, THE WORLD WILL HEAD TOWARDS MORE CONFRONTATION UNDERPINNED BY DE-GLOBALISATION (EXCERPTS)
Yan Xuetong (阎学通)
Interview by The Paper (澎湃新闻) – 29 December 2023
(Illustration: The world in 2024 according to DALL·E 3)
I. On the drivers behind the Russo-Ukrainian and Israeli-Palestinian wars