What Trump Means for Taiwan by CASS Analyst Zhang Hua

"China has accumulated more tools for counteraction and is increasingly resolute in its determination to resist US bullying."

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Today’s edition offers a rare glimpse into how Chinese analysts are evaluating Trump’s impact on Taiwan and cross-Strait relations. The piece summarised below is authored by Zhang Hua (张华), a senior researcher at CASS's prestigious Institute of Taiwan Studies.

Overall, Zhang believes that Trump will maintain the US’s existing policy towards the island, with his aversion to war prompting him to restrain Lai Ching-te’s pro-independence “provocations”. However, Zhang argues that Taiwan is likely to rank low on Trump’s list of priorities. Washington’s primary focus, he suggests, will remain on domestic issues, while any attention given to foreign affairs will centre primarily on Ukraine and the Middle East.

Will Trump strike a deal with Xi over Taiwan? Zhang is sceptical. He believes t…