Why Trump Means Nothing Good for China According to Xiao Gongqin

"The possibility of an entente between the US and Russia should absolutely not be ignored."

Today’s edition features a crosspost from David Ownby’s wonderful blog, Reading the China Dream, which I love reading and highly recommend. — Thomas

Xiao Gongqin (b. 1946) is a scholar of history and politics and a fixture at any number of universities in Shanghai. He is best known for his support of neo-authoritarianism as the best way for a country like China to achieve the stability necessary for economic growth and eventually democracy. He first made these arguments under Deng Xiaoping and is continuing to make them under Xi Jinping (see here for a text from 2024, in Chinese). Xiao is also the kind of intellectual who writes frequently on current events in China and the world, as he is doing in the text translated here on the recent re-election of Donald Trump. The American election provoked such a billowing, exhausting mushroom cloud of partisanship, disinformation, and blather throughout the entire world that I can barely bring myself to read anything more about Trump 2.0. But Trump’s return to power is certainly important to China and to the future of Sino-American relations.

Strangely enough, when I was in China in September, people talked about the Chinese economy, not about Trump – although had I asked them about Trump, they surely would have had something to say. My general impression is that they think they know Trump, that he is responsible for the general shape of Sino-American relations over the past few years, and that the Biden administration’s China policy was sort of “Trump-lite” (or maybe “Trump-smart” or “Trump predictable”). So however chaotic Trump may be on a day-to-day basis, the Chinese feel they know Trump and his shtick, and some believe that he is easy to manipulate, if prone to change position.

Xiao’s essay largely conforms with this general picture. He is not shocked by the prospect of Trump’s return to power, and his main point is to warn fellow Chinese not to trust him on the Taiwan issue. Trump may pretend to be an isolationist and argue that “Taiwan is not pulling its weight,” but once push comes to shove, Xiao insists, Trump will give in to international and public pressure and decide that this is his chance to really put China in a bind. Like many Chinese intellectuals, Xiao is worried about the consequences of populism and nationalism in a China where intractable economic problems are giving Xi Jinping fewer cards to play.

I personally was struck by Xiao's concern that Trump would re-engineer world politics so that an American-Russian alliance would join forces to keep China down. I cannot imagine that Trump would truly have the chops to pull off such a move even if he wanted to. If he tried and failed, however, things would certainly look better for China.

David Ownby

Summary

1. Trump's return presents Beijing with one of the greatest challenges it has ever faced.

2. With Trump back in power, the risk of a war breaking out between the US and China has increased.

3. His apparent indifference towards Taiwan risks emboldening some in China to believe that the time is right to take the island by force.

4. However, this would be a grave mistake. Such a move is certain to provoke a strong international backlash, including from the US.

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5. US countermeasures under Trump could include:

   1. A blockade of Chinese oil imports via the Strait of Hormuz.

   2. Cutting off China's access to critical software.

   3. Defaulting on US debt owed to China

6. Any one of these would deal a devastating blow to China’s economy.

7. A US-Russia rapprochement aimed at countering China is a serious possibility that cannot be overlooked.

8. China should always keep in mind Trump's erratic personality and his unmatched ability to say one thing while doing another.

The Author

Name: Xiāo Gōngqín (萧功秦)
Year of birth: 1946 (age: 78)
Position: Professor, Department of History, Shanghai Normal University (where he has spent his entire academic career); Distinguished Researcher, Contemporary China Research Centre, Fudan University; Doctoral supervisor, School of International and Public Affairs, Shanghai Jiao Tong University; Expert in "social forecasting" at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS)
Research focus: History, politics and intellectual thought of modern and contemporary China
Education: MA Nanjing University (1981); In 1965, Xiao was barred from attending Peking University due to his unsuitable family background and was instead assigned to a machinery factory, where he worked for 12 years.
Experience overseas (as a visiting scholar): Germany, Switzerland, France, Japan, the United States, Singapore and Taiwan

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The White House, President Joe Biden meets with President-elect Donald Trump, Wednesday, November 13, 2024, in the Oval Office, marked as public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

AS TRUMP ASSUMES POWER, HOW WILL CHINA RESPOND TO THE CHALLENGE?
Xiao Gongqin (萧功秦)
Published on Xiao’s WeChat Official Account on 7 November 2024
Translated by David Ownby

A few days ago the American election was too close to call, but as of today, the dust has settled on the most heated contest in six decades, and the maverick Donald Trump is set to become the new U.S. president for the next four years.

Trump's rise to power has its own internal logic. From the perspective of Americans, the power of the extreme “woke” left has truly gotten out of hand in the past few years, and many Americans worry that if ever Harris came to power, many unthinkable policies would be implemented, such as the idea that property theft of less than $900 is not considered a crime – and $900 would increase to $1200.¹ Under Harris, there would be all sorts of policies like this. In addition, the American economy had been flat under Democratic rule, which led many Americans to think that Trump’s return to power would not necessarily be a bad thing. We might also understand Trump’s victory as a conservative correction to the radicalism of the previous administration.

While both sides had many reasons why the other side would fail, the one reason that stood out as most favourable to Trump's election was the fact that during the last four years of Democratic rule, the standard of living of the average American came under increasing pressure due to ever-present inflation, which meant that many middle-class voters who did not like Trump nonetheless felt compelled to vote for him.

Although there were many people who voted for Harris because they did not like Trump, under conditions of economic hardship, the number of people who voted for Trump even though they did not like him exceeded those who voted for Harris for the same reason. I said as much in various venues, arguing that Trump would win because of the state of the American economy.

In addition, the fundamental reason for the defeat of the Democratic Party is that Harris had no particular accomplishments or achievements in the past, and her selection as Biden’s vice-president was not due to her achievements or competence, but rather because Biden was seeking the votes of disadvantaged Americans. Nor did Harris put forward a clear set of policies to attract voters during the campaign. A book recently published in the US is entitled Kamala Harris: Remarkable Achievements and consists completely of blank pages, and is available at a price between 17 and 23 dollars. The idea was original and meant to be funny, but it still managed to hit Harris’s weak points.

Trump's rise to power will be a huge, if not unprecedented, challenge for China. We need to be seriously concerned about the possibility of the following trends:

Trump's long-standing Monroe Doctrine tendency of “minding one’s own business” will lead him to constantly and carelessly express his lack of concern for Taiwan. This in turn will lead people to mistakenly believe that the U.S. under Trump will “abandon Taiwan,” and mistakenly believe that the immediate reunification of Taiwan is an opportunity of a lifetime.

However, once China takes military action, it will definitely arouse strong reactions from the leaders and peoples of the United States, Europe and other countries. This is predictable because after President Lai Ching-te took office, a surprising 205 heads of state or other dignitaries conveyed their congratulations in one way or another. At this juncture, Trump would respond to the pressure and oppose China's reunification, and given who he is, he would strike very hard, trying to capitalise on China’s predicament. We might imagine measures such as the following:

He might use drones to blockade the transport of oil to China through the Straits of Hormuz, which would pay off handsomely. It should be noted that China's oil imports from the Middle East account for nearly 70% of our annual consumption. After 40 years of reform and opening, China is neither sealed off from the world like North Korea nor resource-rich like Russia. China's economy is part of globalisation, and we must be vigilant about the possible consequences of this.

Through executive order, he might also cut off access to the root directories of Microsoft and other software in China, rendering the vast majority of personal computers in China inoperable. This would threaten the banking system, the industrial and commercial system, the medical system, and even WeChat payment systems, without which China cannot function.

He might also default on the huge debt that the United States owes to China, saying that it is to be used as military aid to Taiwan, which in turn will allow American arms dealers to make a fortune. China’s reserves have been realised mainly through the purchase of United States bonds, and Trump’s default would wipe out the hard-earned money China has accumulated over the past four decades and several generations.

When he does this, he will proudly claim that it is to maintain the values of democracy and freedom, and the international order, just as America has done in the Ukraine-Russia war.

Sino-American relations have already deteriorated to a near-war state, and all it would take for war to break out would be an incident resulting in bloodshed. Although Trump has said that he will not go to war with China, once we enter the Trump era, the probability of triggering events will increase, meaning bloodshed is entirely possible. Opinion polls tell us that 80% of Americans have an “unfriendly” view of China, and there is a high probability of direct conflict between the US and China, because neither side will back down.

In 2019, the U.S. Congress reaffirmed the Taiwan Relations Act and the Taiwan Protection Act by votes of 404 to 0. But given that both houses are in the hands of the Republican Party, and that Trump has high level of domestic support, should Trump decide to make a big move, it would be difficult for Americans to oppose him.

Even more important, the US might soon make a big move on the international front, because from an American perspective it makes all the sense in the world to join together with Russia, the world’s third-largest power, to oppose China, the second-largest power. Realists from Kissinger to Mearsheimer have long advocated such a move, which has become a consensus item for both the Republican and the Democratic parties.

Russia, which is trapped in the current war, would be delighted to go with the flow and “pledge its loyalty” to the US initiative as a way of getting out of its current dilemma. Before the current war, Putin openly said that, regarding Sino-American relations, Russia would “sit back and watch the tigers fight.” And more recently, he crowed to the West that Russia was no longer a Marxist or socialist country, implying that China was now the “Red Empire” that you, the West, should deal with. The possibility of an entente between the US and Russia should absolutely not be ignored.

We should also note that once Trump comes to power, he will say that he will abandon Taiwan and then that he will protect Taiwan, and in both instances he will be “sincere.” However, putting these two “sincerities” together is nothing other than a war trap for China.

In fact, inconsistent statements are all too common in American politics. Didn't Biden also say that the United States would not intervene if Russia sent troops into Ukraine, and then what happened? Facts have proved that the United States is precisely the country most deeply involved. The lesson of Russia’s failure is not lost on those paying attention.

The Chinese must dispassionately take these factors into account and remain cautious. We must always remember that it is in Trump’s nature to be erratic. Let's hope that my predictions not prove true in the next few years.

China has its own Eastern wisdom, and the Chinese people know how to “overcome strength with softness,” and this “water wisdom” should surely be a part of the coming exchanges between China and the US. China’s leaders have repeatedly and solemnly stated that they will strive to promote peaceful reunification through peaceful development, but in no event will they commit themselves to giving up the possibility of unification by force. I believe that China's political elites, intellectuals, and society at large will fully realise the complexity of the challenges ahead, and that we will meet the future rationally. At a time when China's national fortunes are at their best in 200 years, may the heavens protect China as great challenges loom on the horizon.

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1. Translator’s note: This claim is not wholly false, but neither is it completely true. Harris was neutral on the law, which passed by popular vote in California in 2014, and never campaigned on it while running from president. See here for more details.