Xia Liping on Cross-Strait and US-China Relations

"National reunification is part of building a strong socialist modernised China, which means we have until 2049 to achieve it."

Today’s edition was put together by Paddy Stephens, a new contributor to the newsletter. — Thomas

President Lai’s speech for “Double Ten”, the national day of the Republic of China (ROC), split opinions. To many western analysts, it demonstrated restraint, with a vow to uphold the status quo and repeated use of the name the Republic of China, a nod to the One China Principle. But Beijing was furious that he repeated a claim from his inauguration speech that the ROC and PRC are "not subordinate to each other", also adding that the PRC “has no right to represent Taiwan”. The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) drills in response set single-day records.

It is tempting to see in such shows of force Beijing’s abandonment of “peaceful reunification”. But in this interview, international relations scholar Xia Liping (夏立平) offers a different analysis. Peaceful “reunification” is difficult with Lai as President, but still possible. The US does not want war and, though US-China relations could remain …