Yan Xuetong on Trump, US-China and the World in 2034 (Part 1)
"Trump really does not want to go to war with China in the Taiwan Strait. He will be more cautious than Biden in terms of preventing a war across the strait."
I am currently on holiday, but the South China Morning Post has very kindly allowed me to share Kawala Xie’s recent interview with China’s most famous international relations scholar, Yan Xuetong (阎学通).
Key Points
Whoever wins November’s election will not be able to prevent a “continuous deterioration” in US-China relations over the next year or so.
If Trump wins, the US will be more cautious in its approach towards Taiwan and less likely to spark a war with China.
If Trump imposes higher tariffs on Chinese imports, Beijing will have limited retaliatory options.
The prospect of a second Trump term, combined with European dissatisfaction with the US approach to Israel’s war against Hamas, is already beginning to help China improve its relations with the EU.
Although China's international relations may not improve over the next decade, Beijing will benefit from the expected deterioration of US foreign relations.
However, the economic and military disparity between the two countries is unlik…