Mutiny in Russia: Chinese Experts React

“This ‘rebellion’ is the most significant ‘grey rhino event’ since the outbreak of the Ukrainian crisis and could have far-reaching repercussions on the course of the war and the situation in Russia.”

Jun 30, 2023

∙ Paid

Thomas des Garets Geddes is a former research fellow at the Mercator Institute for China Studies with a background in Chinese Studies and Sociology. Here, he translates prominent Chinese academics’ remarks about the Wagner mutiny. I hadn’t yet read anything (other than speculation) about how China might be viewing events; from this, it seems they’re understanding it much as the West does: They’re dismayed by what this suggests about Russia’s stability and the security of the regime, appalled by the rise of warlordism (this obviously evokes a particular historic horror for China), and think these events are apt to have a deleterious effect on Russia’s military authority and morale. The tone is one of dismay and contempt. You see the same tone in Chinese state media, too. -

Claire Berlinski

Hello from Beijing,

This was supposed to be a week off for Sinification, but some of you reached out asking if there had been any notable reactions by Chinese scholars to Yevgeny Prigozhin’s and his Wagner group’s recent rebellion in Russia – the most widely noted in the West having perhaps been the two short commentaries by Xu Wenhong and Yu Sui in the China Daily. Today’s edition is therefore a little more concise than usual.

The pieces below were published between the 24th and 26th of June, when the bulk of these commentaries came out. Most focused on the uprising itself, its drivers and its potential impact on both Russian domestic politics and the war in Ukraine. Its implications for China and Beijing’s ties with Moscow were rarely mentioned.

To those of you who may be reading this newsletter from China, do get in touch. I will be staying in Beijing for a couple of weeks, followed by Shanghai and Kunming.

What a treat it is to be back here.

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