Blinken in China: Chinese Experts React
Blinken in China: Chinese Experts React
A positive step but no fundamental change in US-China relations
US secretary of state Antony Blinken has just completed his long-anticipated visit to China where he met with president Xi Jinping, foreign minister Qin Gang and China’s top diplomat Wang Yi as well as a number of other officials. His trip had previously been postponed due to an alleged Chinese spy balloon that flew over the US. It was subsequently shot down, marking a new low in US-China relations.
Blinken’s visit has, of course, been followed by a torrent of commentaries in China. The ones shared below provide a fairly representative overview of those by Chinese international relations experts over the past few days. As so often in China, domestic political constraints play a part in the relative uniformity of these views.
N.B. All of these were expressed before Joe Biden called Xi Jinping a “dictator”, a day after Blinken’s meeting with Xi. Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning stated yesterday that Biden’s comments “seriously violate basic facts, diplomatic protocols and China’s political dignity”.
Name: Yan Xuetong (阎学通)
Year of birth: 1952 (age: 70)
Position: Director of the Institute of International Relations, Tsinghua University.
Previously: Researcher at China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR) 1982-1984 and 1992-2000.
Research focus: International relations
Education: BA Heilongjiang University (1982); MA University of International Relations (1986); PhD University of California, Berkeley (1992)
Source: Phoenix (20.06.2023)
“As long as the US maintains its ‘small yard, high fence’ policy, the relationship between China and the US will essentially be characterised by ‘more conflict than cooperation’ [冲突大于合作].”
Yan commenting on Qin Gang’s statement that China is committed to building a "stable, predictable, and constructive" relationship with the United States and what this implies for US-China ties:
“I believe that Foreign Minister Qin Gang’s comment is very much in line with the objective facts. The contradictions [矛盾] between the US and China exist objectively. Moreover, it is now almost impossible for the US to abandon [its] ‘small yard, high fence’ strategy. This was even written into its National [Security] Strategy [Note: Yan is probably referring to remarks made by US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan]. Therefore, as long as the US maintains its ‘small yard, high fence’ policy, the relationship between China and the US will essentially be characterised by ‘more conflict than cooperation’ [冲突大于合作].”
”So how high can your expectations be? You can have very high expectations, but you will not be able to meet them. The expectation that Foreign Minister Qin Gang put forward is the need for stability. That is to say, the two of us may do some things that the other side is not willing to accept, but I know the boundaries within which you will be doing this and it will not exceed what I am expecting.”
“Foreign Minister Qin Gang’s statement means that the policies of both China and the United States may be unacceptable to and perceived negatively by the other party, but there [must] be a limit to such a policy … It should not exceed what the other country is expecting. If you can do that, then you have stability.”
“So, under the current state of affairs, China and the US actually [still] have a lot of work to do. We have made one another's expectations clear and we both know where the other side’s bottom line lies. This is particularly necessary right now.”
Name: Zhu Feng (朱锋)
Year of birth: 1964 (age: 59)
Position: Director of the School of International Studies, Nanjing University
Previously: Professor at Peking University’s School of International Studies (1991-2013)
Research focus: International relations
Education: BA-PhD Peking University (1981-1991)
Source: Phoenix (20.06.2023)
“Based on the official statements made by both sides, I think Blinken's visit has been, generally speaking, very positive … [However,] it is unrealistic to expect any substantial improvement in Sino-US relations in the short term.”
A summary of Zhu’s views:
Zhu: “I believe the choice of words has been more pragmatic and positive [this time].”
Unlike recent encounters between US and Chinese officials, there has been no “war of words” (唇枪舌剑). On the contrary officials statements made by both sides have been largely in line with one another, emphasising the reopening of channels of communication, reducing the risk of miscalculation, managing differences and finding new spaces for cooperation.
Maintaining open channels of communication and equality in US-China exchanges “is where the real significance of Blinken's visit to China will be able to be evaluated and measured”.
Washington must stop its tendency to talk to China only when it is in its interest to and not talking when it isn’t. China’s interests also need to be taken into account.
Zhu: “It is unrealistic to expect any substantial improvement in Sino-US relations in the short term.”
Beijing’s respectful, peaceful and unwavering approach to the US stands in sharp contrast with Washington’s containment policy towards China. This is another area in which both countries are competing for international support and influence.
Zhu: “On the whole, there is no doubt that Sino-American relations have already fallen into the Thucydides trap.” If Washington were to try to use its “hegemonic powers” to “cripple China” (打残中国), “then China would have no choice but to counterattack in a comprehensive manner [全面反击].”
The next ten years will be key to determining the outcome of this US-China great power competition. The US’s approach towards China is unlikely to change significantly until then.
Name: Wu Xinbo (吴心伯)
Year of birth: 1966 (age: 56/57)
Position: Director of the Institute of International Studies and director of the Center for American Studies, Fudan University (Wu has been working there since 1992).
Other: Advisory role within China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Research focus: China's foreign and security policies, US-China relations and international relations in the Asia-Pacific.
Education: BA-PhD Fudan University (1986-1992);
Source: Beijing Daily (20.06.2023)
“Blinken's visit to China has been positive, but no breakthroughs were achieved.”
Wu’s comments in a nutshell:
Blinken's visit will allow for an increase in high-level exchanges between both countries in such fields as trade, transport, culture and the environment. New channels of communication may also be opened.
However, if old issues are left unresolved and cooperation is not enhanced, relations are unlikely to get back on the right track.
Qin Gang’s emphasis on building a "predictable" relationship with the US highlights the recent volatility of US politics and the harmful effect this has had on Washington’s handling of US-China relations.
Taiwan remains Beijing’s main concern. Washington’s high-level engagement with Taipei and its increasingly close military ties with the ROC risk causing great harm to US-China ties.
There will be two key periods for US-China relations in the coming months:
1. From now until the APEC summit in San Francisco in November: there will be a small window of opportunity to improve relations with Washington, with the US keen to encourage Xi to attend this summit.
2. Thereafter, until America’s presidential election takes place in November 2024, politicians in the US are likely to become more hawkish on China in order to gain votes. This is set to have a negative impact on US-China ties.
Name: Shao Yuqun (邵育群)
Year of birth: 1975 (age: 47/48)
Position: Director of the Institute for Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macao Studies and researcher at the Centre for American Studies, Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (SIIS).
Previously: Director of SIIS’s Centre for American Studies.
Research focus: US foreign policy, US-China relations and Taiwan.
Education: BA and MA East China Normal University; PhD Fudan University (2003).
Source: SIIS (20.06.2023 in Chinese) and China-US Focus (21.06.2023 in English)
“While the outcomes of Blinken's visit to China exceeded expectations, leading to temporary bilateral tension easing, U.S. strategic goals, policies, and approach to China are still characterized by a zero-sum mentality. This mindset is expected to continue causing various disturbances in China-U.S. relations.”
I am using the translation provided by China-US Focus:
“Due to increasing internal and external pressures, the Biden administration felt compelled to proceed with Blinken's visit as soon as possible.”
“Internally, as the curtain rises on the 2024 U.S. presidential election, the Biden administration must show its voters that it can uphold stability in U.S.-China relations, even while maintaining a tough stance on China, to ward off the strong criticism from the Republican Party.”
“Externally, it needs to assuage its Asia-Pacific and European allies, reassuring them that its competitive strategy with China will not trigger a major conflict or involve its allies in such disputes.”
“While the outcomes of Blinken's visit to China exceeded expectations, leading to temporary bilateral tension easing, U.S. strategic goals, policies, and approach to China are still characterized by a zero-sum mentality. This mindset is expected to continue causing various disturbances in China-U.S. relations.”
“Throughout the course of the Blinken two-day visit, China reaffirmed its stance on Taiwan, underscoring that the Taiwan question is at the heart of its core interests, constitutes the most critical element in China-U.S. relations, and represents the highest risk.”
“In terms of policy, the U.S. administration is expected to exhibit some moderation on the Taiwan question to facilitate stability in China-U.S. relations. Nevertheless, the U.S. Congress, especially its Republican members, are pushing a series of provocative ‘pro-Taiwan’ bills that could severely damage China-U.S. relations. Additionally, with Washington's security concerns overshadowing economic considerations and a tendency to overemphasize ‘security’, the suppression of China's key technologies and industries is unlikely to cease in the near term.”
Name: Zhang Zhixin (张志新)
Year of birth: Unknown
Position: Associate Researcher, Institute of American Studies, China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations (CICIR).
Research focus: US-China relations
Education: Unknown
Source: China Internet Information Center (19.06.2023)
“This visit may go some way to reducing tensions between both countries. However, as long as the hostility between them does not subside, the situation will remain the same, with good talks across the table, but confrontation when away from it.”
“Despite being belated, Blinken's visit has, after all, opened the door for China and the US to resume exchanges.”
“This visit may go some way to reducing tensions [剑拔弩张的紧张态势] between both countries. However, as long as the hostility between them does not subside, the situation will remain the same, with good talks across the table, but confrontation when away from it [桌上相谈甚欢、桌下车马对峙]. As a matter of fact, just before Blinken's visit to China, White House National Security Adviser [Jake] Sullivan paid back-to-back visits to India and Japan to coordinate [their] positions on how to ‘address the China challenge’. The previous US policy of ‘decoupling’ from China has been changed to ‘de-risking’ due to widespread opposition from the international community. But anyone with an eye for detail can see that it is [simply] ‘a different broth but the same old medicine’ [换汤不换药, i.e. a change in name only].”
“If the US retains its attitude of ‘I can talk if I want to’ and only wants China to accommodate the US, but is unwilling to care for China's sovereignty, security and development interests, then Blinken has made a mistake [打错了算盘]. The US must learn to work with a growing China.”
